If not, the House would be out of business.

If we're the gambler - at least a successful gambler † - we have these measures of the probability of success.

How are we measuring progress toward Done?.

What are the impediments to reaching Done?.

What resources do we need to reach Done?.

To increase our probability of success - managing SW projects or playing at the casino - we need to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty and answer each of these success factor questions:What does Done Look Like? In units of measure meaningful to the decision-maker?

Our perception of this world - the data and information derived from the data we receive about these behaviors.

The knowledge of this world - the planned and actual behaviors of the system.

The external world - the activities of the project, the casino game, the externalities as an economist call them.

These uncertainties are related to three aspects of the world we live in: So when we say Uncertainty we speak of a future state of a system (cards, dice, a ball bouncing on the wheel, an outcome from the development of a software management decision for cost, schedule, or technical performance of a Feature) that are not fixed or determined. For card games, the uncertainties come from a lack of knowledge of what cards are in the player's and dealer's hands. These uncertainties are also created by the naturally occurring variances in the underlying processes of the situation.įor the roulette table and dice (craps) table, these underlying naturally occurring variances come from the spinning of the wheel and the tossing of the dice (assuming both are Fair). These uncertainties are created by our incomplete knowledge of the situation – not by our ignorance of the situation, just incomplete knowledge. Uncertainties are things we cannot be certain about – this is the standard state for all project work. In the case of Aristotle, the casinos, and all project work, uncertainties exist. And the conclusion, the “I have to make a cloak,” is an action. What I need, I have to make I need a cloak. whereas here the conclusion which results from the two premises is an action. īut how does it happen that thinking is sometimes accompanied by action and sometimes not, sometimes by motion, and sometimes not? It looks as if almost the same thing happens as in the case of reasoning and making inferences about unchanging objects.īut in that case, the end is a speculative proposition.

In Aristotle's De Moti Animalium, c 400 BC, the phrase to the left is found.

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